By Thomas Chambers
It would be impossible for anyone, from President Hope on down to Grand High Exalted Mystic Minion Ron Huberman, to start a “No Horseplayer Left Behind” initiative.
The teacher prays Dick and Jane remember the answers they were given. To get the “free” money. In the pari-mutuel world, there are no answers ahead of time and the results can’t be cooked in the district office. Win, Place, Show. That’s it. Plenty get left behind. That’s just tough.
But as we sit here on the eve of the 136th Kentucky Derby, there’s a certain calm, emanating from a resignation that no one on Earth has even the slightest idea who is going to win this race. This race borders on, or has already become, what they call inscrutable. There’s no rhyme, reason, form, trends, tendencies or strengths to depend on.
If Make Music for Me shocks the world, we can say “look at Mine That Bird last year.” If Lookin At Lucky wins, well, he was the favorite. Add the specter of a quagmire brought on by inches of rain, again, and the majority of these entries can jump up for the win.
Kentucky Oaks Friday might be a better day of racing, dry, with Blind Luck the favorite in what should be a competitive race. And a real highlight that has received very little attention is the return of Rachel Alexandra in the $400,000 La Troienne Stakes (Gr. II), where she’ll meet her New Orleans Ladies conqueror Zardana. Catch the 12:26 post time at lunch. They say she’s ready to go and if she runs Rachel-esque, watch for the Zenyatta showdown hubbub to heat up once again.
We’ll also see this weekend old favorites like Friesan Fire, Macho Again, Battle of Hastings, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Diamondrella, General Quarters, Informed Decision, Musket Man. And hotshot Derby outsider, three-year-old Setsuko on the turf.
As always in America, where more always seems to translate as better, the Derby itself is again overpopulated, for many reasons. Todd Pletcher has four in the big race, and Bob Baffert, Nick Zito, John Sadler and Mike Maker all have two.
Horses drop out of the Derby every year, no big deal there. But with the withdrawal of Eskendereya over the weekend because of swelling in a leg, the complexion of the race was dramatically altered. Esky was clearly the best three-year-old coming into this race, seemingly capable of outrunning any tomfoolery he might have encountered. He was a combination of speed and distance all spring. His failure to run gives all the others a better chance.
Now, for the talent portion of the pageant, in post position order:
1. Lookin At Lucky
With Eskendereya dropping out, this one becomes the probable favorite. Trainer Bob Baffert has been touting this horse since early last season and the son of Smart Strike (super horse Curlin’s sire) has matriculated well through the School of Hard Knocks.
He’s been Grade 2 or Grade 1 placed since his debut maiden win, finishing in the money every time, winning 6. He comes off a horrible trip in the April 3 Santa Anita Derby in which Garrett Gomez, who keeps the mount, painted him into a corner on the backstretch that Lucky almost didn’t get out of. He then put in a valiant effort to get up for show behind winner Sidney’s Candy.
He’s got a dirt win and his highest Beyer Speed Figure over Derby rivals Noble’s Promise and Dublin in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and he made the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, of all races, a key race when he finished second there and went on to win his next two. The 1 post is not particularly good, as Baffert will agree.
“He’s got to break well,” said Baffert. “Plan A is to break well. Plan B is we’re screwed.”
Gomez will need a ton of luck and all the skills he possesses to pull this one off.
2. Ice Box
On a decided upswing coming into 2010, this son of Pulpit won in January and then ran into the Eskendereya buzzsaw, finishing fifth in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February.
But wait, there’s more.
I liked the way he settled in the trailing position and then started picking them off on the backstretch and into the turn. It was a lot to do, but as Esky took off, Ice Box kept to his task.
Then, in one of the most exciting Derby preps of the season, Ice Box once again took up the trailer’s position (proving he can take dirt in the face) in the Florida Derby and then made a mid-wide move on the turn for position coming into the stretch. He then frantically dashed up to meet Pleasant Prince at the wire. I thought I had the 25-1 ‘Prince, but Ice Box got up for the win in the closest photo I’ve seen this year. If the pace either destructs or is run moderately, this horse definitely has a good chance. 6-1? 15-1?
3. Noble’s Promise
He’s another hard knocker who was almost pulled from this race after being bruised and cut up in the April 10 Arkansas Derby.
A quality workout Monday morning convinced trainer Kenny McPeek to keep ‘Promise in the race. He was bumped and squeezed and then unable to catch the front speed in Line of David and Super Saver, usually a tough task anyway at Oaklawn.
You would have liked to see him finish the job in the Rebel, but Lookin At Lucky just plain ran him down to win by a short head.
His two best speed figures have come on the dirt, but Lookin At Lucky has had his number and you really have to wonder if he wants 10 furlongs. He just hasn’t beaten a top-quality foe. And at what price?
4. Super Saver
In the Kentucky Jockey Club last November, this first of four Todd Pletcher trainees shot to the lead, led until he was slightly headed coming into the stretch and then popped down to the rail and won by an easy five lengths. It was a patented Calvin Borel ride and Bo-Rail gets the mount Saturday.
I’m taking the position that he needed the Arkansas Derby, where he was barely edged by Line of David.
And there’s no shame in hanging in the Tampa Derby and still finishing only a half length behind the winner.
He should be fresh and the works and Beyer progression are there. If he can let the front runners do their thing and then make the big move – Borel should help him there – he should come in at a decent price. He’s a legitimate contender.
5. Line of David
This son of Lion Heart vaulted into the Derby conversation with a 10-point Beyer improvement and a neck win on the switch to dirt in the Arkansas Derby.
Over his last four races, he’s improved 26 points on the Beyer ladder.
But how good a race was Arkansas?
He had his way on the lead in the backstretch in a race that wasn’t particularly fast and had to hang on for dear life to get the win. It was a classic Oaklawn Park jaunt on the lead with atypical drama at the end.
If you believe Daily Racing Form clocker reports, ‘David may have left his game in Arkansas as a Monday workout had him running on empty. With the Arkansas Derby his only stakes win of any kind, it might have been a fluke, for now. Looks like a bounce.
6. Stately Victor
This is the kind of horse I do not like seeing in the Derby.
With a mediocre record and just a maiden turf win to his name, he won the Blue Grass April 10 on Keeneland’s synthetic to catapult himself into this race. He fired a 94 Beyer, 13 points his best, and is the son of Ghostzapper.
He hasn’t beaten much of anything, including Derby rival Paddy O’Prado. He’s got a huge surface question to answer. What do I do? Flip a coin? I’m gonna need a big price and some convincin’.
7. American Lion
Despite winning the pretty slow Illinois Derby on April 3 while on the front end and controlling the pace, American Lion is rising on a lot of Derby lists.
He made the successful switch to dirt at Hawthorne, a key. He ran his top Beyer of 98 here. If he’s partial to dirt, he also had a 94 in the Robert B. Lewis on Santa Anita’s synthetic in February. That’s versatility. He was very determined to hold off Yawanna Twist at Hawthorne and should have enough Tiznow and Storm Cat in him to get the distance. He may very well clunk up to get a nice piece. Just depends on how much clunkin’ he can do.
8. Dean’s Kitten
Owner Ken (and Sarah) Ramsey readily admits to a bad case of Derby fever. The one time ‘Kitten ran on dirt, he was more than 33 lengths behind Eskendereya. In an excellent post position, this turf-bred needlessly clogs up traffic.
9. Make Music for Me
With a late injury to Endorsement, this career synthetic/turf runner was the last one in the Derby door. His only win was in the ungraded $68,000 Pasadena but he’s run in enough big races to accumulate the dough. More filler the Derby doesn’t need.
10. Paddy O’Prado
I didn’t like Barbaro on paper, but I kept hearing his name and how well he trained. The sheet on this potential wiseguy isn’t great, but he is getting rave reviews for his workouts, including the comments he’s taking to the Churchill dirt well.
He’s yet another making the switch from turf and synthetic, and in his first race ever, he fared poorly on Churchill slop. He had to run in the April 10 Blue Grass to have a chance to get in the Derby. He was progressing very well on the turf going into the Blue Grass synthetic and didn’t regress much on the Keeneland plastic. He’ll need to, ostensibly, boost his Beyers to have a chance. And he’s shown closing ability in just about all of his races, the last three at 9 furlongs.
You have to question his dirt ability, but this might be a case of peaking at the right time. At a decent price. I don’t like him, but as Tony Gazzo once said, “I hear things.”
11. Devil May Care
The filly. Why must they make my life so complicated?
The Good: She ran an attention-getting triple-digit Beyer in winning the Bonnie Miss March 20 at Gulfstream; she’s bred to run all day and will get a 5-pound weight advantage and blinkers added; she’s looked good training in the Churchill mud; she’s got John Velazquez aboard.
The Bad: She’s not a good gate horse, throwing a fit before the Silverbulletday two back; she took severe umbrage to the whip in the Bonnie Miss and shook her head in protest; she’s lightly raced with four mediocre speed figures and I don’t know if I trust the Gulfstream Beyer; she’ll probably be way overbet.
How is she going to handle the screaming Churchill crowd?
Either Pletcher believes she can’t beat Blind Luck in the Kentucky Oaks or that she may be better than the 19 boys in the Derby. Or both. I might take a 25-1 flyer, but I won’t get it. She might be good enough for a piece. Who knows?
12. Conveyance
This Baffert trainee is pure speed and figures to try to go to the lead early. N
ot sure I like Baffert’s happy-to-be-here stance with this horse: “All we have to do now is keep him happy and healthy,” said Baffert. “From here on in, we’re just going to train him with little gallops and stuff. Now we’re just going to enjoy it.”
I smell a rabbit for Lookin At Lucky.
Even if he lulls them to sleep from the front on an easy pace, it really doesn’t appear he can get the 10-furlong distance. Just can’t see him lasting. So help me, if they let this guy wire the field . . .
13. Jackson Bend
The Nick Zito trainee was a big buzz horse as he came into 2010 with a 5-1 record. He ran into an improving Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull and then persevered in two trouncings at the hands of Eskendereya. No shame there. He’s never been worse than second, but distance is a question here too. His Beyer range in the low 90s, while consistent, needs a boost. He’ll need a lot of luck Saturday, but could get a piece.
14. Mission Impazible
Devil May Care or Super Saver might well get all the buzz as Todd Pletcher’s next best hopes after Eskendereya, but this one could have the goods.
His Louisiana Derby win is bashed as slow, but I liked the way Mission’ kept his patience on the backstretch as Rajiv Maragh tucked him on the rail inside four other horses and basically went along for the ride. He made a fundamentally sound turn of foot into the stretch and after greenly tailgating looking for a place to go, got clear and reeled in A Little Warm for the win. I liked his gallop out, signalling he might be OK at 10 furlongs, but you have to wonder if he’ll be fast enough to get into a winning position. But if the speed demons on the front destroy the race’s rhythm . . .
15. Discreetly Mine
This son of Mineshaft (A.P. Indy) has plenty of pedigree to get the 10 furlongs, but in what should have been a big step up in the Louisiana Derby, he flattened out and finished fourth. His works have been unspectacular but solid, and his Beyers seem to have plateaued. Looks like a top ten finish, but not in the money.
16. Awesome Act
A lot of people like him (10-1 morning line), seemingly based on his pedigree of Awesome Again-Houdini’s Honey. I don’t see as much to like on paper, and I wonder how much he wants to win. They’re banking on a big kick in the stretch, but he couldn’t outfinish Jackson Bend in the Wood Memorial. Only if the race falls apart and he makes a big improvement at the same time.
17. Dublin
Not sure he even wants to race Saturday. In his last two workouts, he was bouncing off the outside fence and looking to bear way out of the turn. This horse has always taken a lot of action, only to disappoint. Linemaker Mike Battaglia must be smoking some of the Turfway PolyTrack, where he announces races, as he’s made him 12-1 on the morning line. Post 17? Let’s hope he doesn’t take a right turn in front of Sidney’s Candy. I’m tossing.
18. Backtalk
Another late entry because of defections. He made all his money as a 2-year-old and hasn’t done a thing this year, except for a minor stakes win at Delta Downs. He was well bet in the Illinois Derby and failed miserably in a slow race. He’s a sprinter, his Beyers blow and his one Churchill workout stunk. He should not be taking up space in this race.
19. Homeboykris
Where do I start? Nowhere. Toss. And don’t screw up Sidney’s Candy!
20. Sidney’s Candy
The West Coast wonder was put squarely behind the eight ball Wednesday when he drew post 20, which moves him from one of the top favorites to nearly an automatic toss.
Trouble is, he may be the best horse in the race, one you must include.
Only two have won from that post, Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 and Big Brown in 2008, and Sid’ is no Big Brown.
This son of Candy Ride has never had a horse in front of him in any race and that, coupled with a first-time dirt race, makes the game different from anything this surfer boy’s ever seen. He’ll have mud in his face for the first time.
On the other hand, his past performances make him one to beat and if he gets past 10-1 or better, you have to bite.
This is where you wish he had prepped on a dirt track at least once, like a few of the others.
And while I like Joe Talamo, this’ll be the kid’s first mount in one of the most difficult races in the world, not a five-horse field in a Hollywood Park overnight stakes.
The Wager Window
Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, Super Saver, Paddy O’Prado, Mission Impazible, Sidney’s Candy and American Lion will all figure in my wagers, with lots of boxing. I will reluctantly take a look at Awesome Act. I will probably have to take a flyer on Stately Victor, because I don’t want him burning me. Same goes for Devil May Care, and Conveyance if he’s 20-1 or better. On the tote board, I want to see three to five reasonable favorites and the rest with boxcar odds. We’ll see.
One more thing: Go Rachel!
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Thomas Chambers is the Beachwood’s man on the rail. He brings you TrackNotes (nearly) every Friday. He welcomes your comments.
Posted on April 30, 2010