By Thomas Chambers
It’s not the oldest American race – that would be the Travers Stakes. And it’s not the richest race – that would be the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
But it’s the diamond, the one race they all want to win, or even just run in. The Kentucky Derby is the one race a year that comes close to catching the attention of most sports fans.
Owners in their heart of hearts might know their horse can’t win, then gaze upon the apparitions of a Mine That Bird, a Giacomo, a Charismatic. It’s a syndrome, Derby Fever, and the only pharmaceuticals for it are a single-minded horse, a fearless jockey and a massive dose of plain luck.
The Derby itself is an absolute anomaly, at least in America, where 20 still-learning, often green three-year-olds are thrust into a storm of more than 100,000 screaming humans and 19 other equines bred to do the same thing – win.
The weekend will be a wagering adventure. You’ve got the Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday the 30th, the big Derby card on Saturday afternoon, and the Floyd Mayweather, Jr.-Shane Moseley fight wrapping it all up on Saturday night. Here in Chicago, throw in Dominic Pesoli’s 8 Count Productions hosting the Showtime-televised The Next Generation of Supermiddleweights boxing at UIC Pavilion on Friday night, and you just about have yourself a dream couple of days.
Handicapping the Derby itself? Study the past performances, pick your favorite name, or find a cute angle. Any one of them can work. The Derby prep season is over, and while we probably don’t have another Barbaro or Big Brown, a few have distinguished themselves. The rest offer great betting opportunities.
Just like most modern media on most stories today, the top five or so contenders will be chanted by the touts and mouths like a mantra, even though there will be 20 entries, based on standings in earnings in graded stakes races, and we all know anything can happen in a horse race.
The big guns include Eskendereya, who at this point figures to go off the big favorite; Lookin at Lucky, the Bob Baffert trainee who has done just about everything you could ask of him, with heart; Noble’s Promise, if he stays in the hunt as he took a physical pounding in last week’s Arkansas Derby; Sidney’s Candy, the West Coast wonder who, handicap this, has never run on a real dirt track; and perhaps Mission Impazible, who will probably be wiseguyed down to contender status off his big closing win in the March 27 Louisiana Derby.
You’re going to get a lot of wiseguys in this race. After the top two, just about all of them are.
They’ll include Rule, whose pedigree of sire Roman Ruler (out of Fusaichi Pegasus, the 2000 Derby winner) and out of a Personal Flag mare looks like plenty; the Pulpit colt Ice Box, the winner of a thrilling Florida Derby; Endorsement, whose valid-or-not triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in his Sunland Derby win (the same launching pad Mine That Bird used last year) will entice a lot of money; Indian Charlie colt Conveyance, another Baffert horse who has either flattened out or can’t be dismissed with a 5-4-1-0 record, you be the judge; Awesome Act and Interactif, both looking not so hot on paper; and the viable Pleasant Prince and Jackson Bend, who both fail the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately test.
They probably won’t all answer the bell, but ubertrainer Todd Pletcher has as many as seven horses in his Derby posse. Maybe attrition is his strategy this year, but the Hall of Famer’s got a Ryne Sandberg-esque 0-for-24 line in the Run for the Roses. The hump gets bigger every year.
Candid New Yorker Nick Zito has early buzz horse Jackson Bend waiting, if the Derby doorman unhooks the velvet rope for him, and newer sensation Ice Box.
West Coast 21-percenter John Sadler saddles the one-two punch of Sidney’s Candy and Line of David.
Perhaps Joe Talamo will actually get to ride this year after last year’s favorite, I Want Revenge, was scratched on the morning of the race. Last year’s superjock, Calvin Borel, looks like he’ll be aboard Pletcher’s Super Saver, who’s certainly got a lot more cred coming into the 136th running than Bo-Rail’s Mine That Bird did for the 135th.
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You look to the Derby preps to learn something and last week we did. We learned that we don’t know much.
Michael Maker-trained Stately Victor, doing his best Sinister Minister impression, rolled home by more than four in the Bluegrass Stakes on the Keeneland synthetic Saturday. At $40.10 on the dollar. Proceed at your own risk on May 1.
Down in beautiful Hot Springs, Arkansas, the day after Zenyatta toyed with some highly suspect co-conspirators in the Apple Blossom, Line of David outlasted the more-respected Super Saver and Dublin in the Arkansas Derby. At $17.30 on the dollar that I’m happy to say I hit. I liked his progression coming in, the jockey change to locally knowledgeable Jon Court and the Lion Heart lineage. And I do dig that this was his first race on real dirt, the same stuff they still have at Churchill Downs, don’t you know?
Take Line of David, whose owners sport the melodic names of Ike and Dawn Thrash. Or Sidney’s Candy, the Candy Ride colt named after the late Sidney Craig of Jenny Craig fame. Or Lookin at Lucky, whose owners were cocktailing with Bob Baffert when one of them, talking about the roll of the dice that is spotting quality horses, said “you’re lookin’ at lucky.” Or even Eskendereya, whose name is defined as “a flirty Alexandrian (Egypt) dance.” And American Lion has an, uh, American name, Tiznow for a sire, and a wire job in the April 3 Illinois Derby at beautiful Hawthorne Race Course.
And Jerry and Ann Moss are not here, so we thankfully won’t be subjected to another Sting reference, although race fans still talk about Giacomo. You’re never forgotten if you win the Kentucky Derby.
So, without a whit of chagrin, choose your handicapping M.O. Be careful not to ruin fine bourbon with sugar and mint. Ogle the Southern belles in their antebellum headwear. Seek out some prices. And hold all tickets until the race is official.
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Thomas Chambers is the Beachwood’s man on the rail. He brings you TrackNotes (nearly) every Friday. He welcomes your comments.
Posted on April 16, 2010