By Steve Rhodes
Alfonso Soriano is targeting July 24 as his return date from the disabled list, and Cubs manager Lou Piniella is planning to return Soriano to the leadoff spot, with Kosuke Fukudome batting second. Piniella has earned the benefit of the doubt, but I’ve had it up to here with those who say it doesn’t really matter who bats leadoff.
For example, on April 25, Sun-Times Cubs writer Gordon Wittenmyer wrote:
“Sure, Alfonso Soriano should hit deeper in the order when he returns from the disabled list next week. But as long as Kosuke Fukudome keeps producing the way he is in the No. 5 spot and the guys right behind him continue to reach base the way they are, then Soriano essentially becomes a middle-of-the-order hitter in the leadoff hole after the first inning anyway.”
Nonsense!
Players also aren’t immune to this failed line of thinking. On June 10, Orlando Cabrera said: “You basically lead off only time a game, so it’s just one at-bat.”
Baloney!
Here’s where they and their ilk are wrong.
1. The leadoff man gets the most at-bats per game. So it makes a difference beyond the first inning. When you’re down to your last out, or a clutch situation, he’s got the best chance of being up.
2. Unless you have a player who hits a home run every time up (the near-case for Barry Bonds as leadoff man), you want the guy who gets the most at-bats to be the guy who gets on-base the most. And because he gets the most at-bats and on-base the most, you want a guy with enough speed to be able to get into scoring position late in the game or to be able to score the winning run from second base.
3. That one at-bat in the first inning could make the difference in the game. Even if the leadoff man only mattered once in the game, that’s one inning where you have an advantage. You want your power hitters to hit home runs and extra base hits with men on base to maximize scoring. That means you want the guys who get on base the most ahead of them.
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Soriano – like Corey Patterson – should hit sixth. After your power hitters in the four- and five-holes have done their thing, you need to start the offense up again. But sometimes the four and five guys haven’t gotten the job done, so you’re six man is counted on to clean up. That’s why it’s the perfect spot in the lineup for the player who most blends speed and power but doesn’t deserve to hit higher.
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The other key consideration is the eight-hole in the NL. With a usually crappy hitter coming up next, you won’t see fast balls. You can easily be walked. You will get nothing to hit. So you need a smart hitter who won’t swing wildly, who can hit crap, and who can take the walk and steal a base to get into scoring position for the pitcher or a pinch-hitter.
That’s why earlier this season I advised Fukudome to hit eighth if he wasn’t going to hit second. With Fukudome’s average down to .279, that looks awfully good now.
In March, I wrote this: “Kosuke Fukudome may turn out to be a nice player, but he’ll probably hit .280 with no power. His on-base percentage will be unusually high for a Cub and he’ll be a good defensive player, but he’s not an All-Star.”
I’m happy to file this in the I Told You So category even if Fukudome did undeservedly make the All-Star team. I don’t feel bad crowing about that all because I also have to admit I was wrong – so far – about Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood. I was unconvinced that Dempster would be more than mediocre as a starter, and totally convinced that Wood would be back on the DL by now.
Other predictions that I got wrong:
* That Carlos Zambrano would be on the DL by now for putting his first in a wall.
* That Aramis Ramirez would be on the DL by now for putting his head in a wall.
* That Ronnie Cedeno would be selling insurance by now.
I’m happy to say that I was a big fan of Geovany Soto, Ryan Theriot, and Mighty Mike Fontenot from the start.
I’ve always thought Derrek Lee was one of the coolest cats in the game, even before he was a Cub.
On the other hand, I was a big Rich Hill fan too, and look how that turned out.
I’m happy to say that I said from the beginning that the White Sox would be better than people thought. But I also thought the Cubs – while they would win the division – would be worse than expected.
As for the rest of the season, I still think the Tigers and Yankees are threats in the AL, and the Brewers are still in it in the NL Central. I can’t bring myself to think about the Cards – not because of the Cubs rivalry, but because I loathe Tony LaRussa so much.
Ultimately, there is only one unequivocal statement I can make: Go Twins!
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Comments welcome.
Posted on July 17, 2008