By Mike Luce
We are celebrating an important event here at the Report. Beginning today, we can enjoy an entire weekend of Top 25 action . . . without the University of Florida. That’s right, it’s a Gator-Free Weekend. Never fear, commentators will work in Tim Tebow references whenever possible. But for now, while Florida enjoys the week off (and Tebow clears the cobwebs upstairs), we have an opportunity to assess the other undefeated teams in the Top 25.
I doubt any of the following teams will stay undefeated. I recognize few teams, even national champions, finish the season with zero losses. Thus, picking against Michigan (4-0) or Iowa (4-0) isn’t going too far out on a limb. Although Alabama (4-0), LSU (4-0), Cincinnati (4-0) and TCU (3-0) might look solid, don’t be surprised to see a major upset this weekend. Again.
In a few weeks, we can begin to debate the Byzantine system used by college football to rank the most elite teams. (Yes, another poll! Except the HAL 9000 runs this version.) But for now, we can see the question answered on the field.
Just for kicks this week, I’m throwing in a predicted final score. As always, the following is for entertainment purposes only.
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Game: #3 Alabama (-15.5) @ Kentucky (11:21 a.m., Saturday)
Comment: Start time in honor of . . . blackjack?
As a Kentucky boy, I should recuse myself from this pick. I knew this whole “talking about the other undefeated teams” shtick would involve the Bama-Kentucky game. Yet my gut tells me the Cats will challenge the Tide.
While a win might be too much to ask (given the 77-year gap between the first two UK victories), something tells me the Kentucky squad will play tough. If asked, Kentucky coach Rich Brooks might be satisfied just seeing his team show up. Few teams have played dead as convincingly as the Wildcats last weekend.
Alabama continues to play well against a mixed schedule. After kicking off the season with a win against Virginia Tech, the Tide have yet to play another team with a winning record. I sense the Hokies would fare much better now, and Bama hasn’t blown me away in the past few weeks. Morale may suffer a bit as the Tide D mourns the loss of linchpin LB Hightower for the season. Combined with a lull in energy while on the road and Alabama might forget to play at full speed against a Kentucky team they just narrowly beat last year.
The Crimson Tide are the best bet (aside from Florida) to go undefeated, but there will be some close calls along the way. Final score: Alabama 31, Kentucky 17.
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Game: #4 LSU @ Georgia (-3.5, 2:30 p.m., Saturday)
Comment: Look at that point spread again. The Bayou Bengals need a convincing win over a decent opponent in the worst way. Les Miles will play the “disrespect” card in the visitors’ locker room on Saturday, and for good reason. LSU’s middling offense can’t afford to stall against Georgia. Georgia fields a questionable secondary, but nobody is losing sleep over opposing QB Jordan Jefferson.
Most commentators will point to the ground game or defense as the key to this matchup. Not so. The deciding factor will be discipline. If Georgia racks up penalties (314 yards to date, fifth worst in the country), the Tigers will slip away with a win. That said, I never like to pick against the Dawgs between the hedges in Sanford Stadium. UGA head man Mark Richt has never impressed me as the liveliest mind in college coaching, but he can get his team fired up to play at home. Final score: Georgia 28, LSU 23.
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Game: UC Davis @ #5 Boise State (n/a, 7:00 p.m., Saturday)
Comment: We glossed over Boise State above on purpose. I don’t think the Broncos are at much risk against . . . nickname? Need a nickname here? UC Davis. Right. UC Davis. One moment, folks. Yes, the UC Davis Aggies! Boise doesn’t have much to fear from them. Let’s move on.
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Game: #10 Cincinnati (-29) @ Miami Ohio (12:00 p.m., Saturday)
Comment: Even Miami grads are taking the Bearcats this weekend. Final Score: Cincinnati 45, Miami 7.
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Game: Southern Methodist @ #11 TCU (-28, 7:00 p.m., Saturday)
Comment: The Horned Frogs must have taken a deep breath after surviving a 14-10 knuckle-biter against Clemson last Saturday. I think TCU would like to have a week off, but now they have to contend with a bunch of fired-up Methodists. Life just isn’t fair. Final score: TCU 27, SMU 7.
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Game: #12 Houston (-15.5) @ UTEP (8:00 p.m., Saturday)
Comment: After a challenging start to the season, the Houston Cougars open conference play on the road against Texas El Paso. The Miners are still licking their wounds after losing by eight touchdowns to Texas last week. Yes, eight. I believe Texas coach Mack Brown felt bad about that game, at least for a few seconds.
Houston needs to focus and avoid distractions . . . such as all the talk about being a “BCS buster,” an undefeated season, the only hope for Conference USA, the helmets that disappeared last week, how long Coach Sumlin will stick around . . . you get the idea. Final score: Houston 45, UTEP 24.
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Game: Arkansas State @ #13 Iowa (-21, 11:05 a.m., Saturday)
Comment: I have been giving Iowa a hard time all season. After beating a top-five team on the road last week, I think the Hawkeyes have earned a free pass. I’m still not entirely convinced, but I do think they can handle the Indians. Final score: Iowa 35, Arkansas State 10.
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Game: #22 Michigan @ Michigan State (-3.5, 11:00 a.m., Saturday)
Comment: I watched the end of the IU-Michigan game last Saturday. When I back the favorite and the cover is out of the question, my allegiance quickly switches to the underdog. But Michigan, to their credit, found a way to win. That is something often said of good teams and the Wolverines are headed in that direction. But a rivalry game on the road might be too much to ask of this young team. The Spartans (1-2) couldn’t ask for a better chance to turn their season around. This should easily be the best early game on Saturday. Final score: MSU 31, Michigan 24.
CFR Notes
On the sea mammal front, the Sports Seal has been riding a hot streak. When I explained my approach to the preview column this week, I could swear he snorted in derision before rolling back into the pool. He deigned to break from his demanding routine of napping, floating around, and harassing his handlers to bark out the following picks:
~ Penn State @ Illinois (+7)
~ USC @ California (+5)
~ Oklahoma @ Miami (+7.5)
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Mike “Chief” Luce brings you The College Football Report in this space twice a week. He welcomes your comments.
Posted on October 2, 2009