By Mike Luce
This week, let’s take a look at the follies of the top BCS teams, as ranked in the first poll released by the Bowl Championship Series HAL 9000 on Sunday night. The top teams are, in order: Florida, ‘Bama, Texas, Boise, Cincy, Iowa, USC, TCU, LSU, and Miami (FL). (LSU was idle this week.)
Game: Arkansas 20 @ #1 Florida 23 (-24.5)
What was supposed to happen? For the first time since the loss to Ole Miss last year, skeptics have begun questioning Florida’s spot atop the FBS rankings. With dominant performances by Alabama, some claim Florida might not be the best team in the SEC, much less the nation. The lingering effects of a concussion (or possibly, a new play-it-safe offensive game plan) seemed to limit Florida QB Tim Tebow last week. The Gators hoped to dispel any questions against the high-powered offense of Arkansas.
Despite putting up some gaudy numbers, the Razorbacks didn’t notch a significant win until Week 6 against the then-ranked Auburn Tigers. The game against Florida would show if QB Mallett could make things happen against arguably the best defense in the country.
What actually happened? I don’t know if Tebow still feels a little woozy, but he doesn’t seem to play with the same reckless abandon. The box score shows 27 rushing attempts by Tebow, but his longest run only went for 16 yards. Perhaps sensing some vulnerability, Arkansas didn’t hesitate to blitz again and again. Typically, Tebow has been able to shrug off would-be tacklers either back in the pocket or down field but he seemed to go down without much of a fight on Saturday.
Against a team like Arkansas, however, all of this is pretty much a moot point. Florida dominated the game defensively. Had it not been for a case of the dropsies, this game might not have been close. But four times, twice by Tebow, Florida coughed up the ball on fumbles. Statistically, the Gators could have started a serviceable backup and probably would have still won the game. . . so the white elephant is officially in the room.
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Game: #22 South Carolina 6 @ #2 Alabama 20 (-18)
What was supposed to happen? Steve Spurrier hadn’t won a big game at South Carolina against a top-ranked opponent before this season. But after upsetting Ole Miss, the monkey was off his back. Even so, beating Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium could be too tall an order.
‘Bama boasts a balanced offense and an imposing defense. While QB McElroy won’t go into the Hall of Fame, he does enough to help his team win. The Tide can also trot out quality players from a deep bench.
What actually happened? ‘Bama RB Mark Ingram racked up 246 (!) yards against South Carolina – the third highest total in Alabama history. After only seven games into his sophomore season, Ingram is already poised to break the thousand yard mark. If Ingram is any indication, the 2008 class at Alabama could be causing havoc in the SEC for years.
I think Nick Saban might have figured this whole “recruiting” thing out.
While Florida surrendered the overall top spot in the AP poll on Sunday night, the Gators lead Alabama by a surprisingly large margin in the BCS. Florida only has one tough game left – on the road at South Carolina – while ‘Bama must still play LSU and end the regular season in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. Everyone assumes the Tide and Gators will meet in the SEC championship game, but I think it’s too early yet to assume either team will make it. A safe bet? Probably. A sure thing? No.
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Game: #20 Oklahoma 13 @ #3 Texas 16 (-3)
What was supposed to happen? The Red River Rivalry (no comment, let’s move on) should have been the premiere game of the day. This one had it all: bitter rivals, a neutral field, BCS implications, Bevo, you name it.
What actually happened? Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford aggravated his right shoulder injury in the first quarter, and any hope of an interesting game went right out the window. The NCAA may need to start paying attention to these pile-driver hits QB are sustaining from defensive linemen. Tackles and ends often push the 300-lb mark, and with that much weight driving a QB to the ground, an awkward landing can result in serious injury. In fact, I don’t know how you can land anything but awkwardly in that scenario.
Looking ahead, Texas still must clear several hurdles to remain in contention for the BCS title. The Horns must face Oklahoma State and Kansas, and I would be surprised if they beat both teams. Further, Oklahoma State has yet to lose a Big 12 game either, and could nab UT’s spot in the conference championship with a head-to-head win. Let’s just say for a team ranked third in the BCS poll, I don’t feel good about the Longhorns’ chances.
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Game: #4 Virginia Tech 23 (-3.5) @ #19 Georgia Tech 28
What was supposed to happen? A number of preview shows and columns picked the Yellow Jackets to win outright. Heck, even here at the Report, we made a passing reference to the potential upset in this game. With a win, Va Tech would have appeared near the top of the BCS pile.
What actually happened? The blasphemy was true! (The best kind.) Virginia Tech might be overrated! The BCS poll would have us believe that neither team will factor into the championship game, but the ACC race is wide open . . .
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Game: #5 Boise State 28 (-9.5) @ Tulsa 21
What was supposed to happen? Everyone would like Boise to either: a) lose or b) blow everyone out.
What actually happened? This type of result confuses me, and drives the voters crazy. Is Boise for real? What if Boise goes unbeaten and Oregon wins out? Do the Broncos merit that much more attention . . . ?
Boise actually falls on both sides of a key argument about strength of schedule and the importance of winning key games: in Week 1, Oregon was highly ranked and the Boise win was viewed as a bit of an upset. (Although the Broncos were favored by three at home.) Weeks later, as Oregon continues to win, Boise’s victory looks better and better. Some believe the rank of the team when you beat them should matter most; others feel that you can only measure a win’s merits as the season progresses. (Incidentally, Oregon embodies the “lose early” phenomenon we discussed weeks ago.)
As for me, I think we should wait another two weeks. Let’s see if Oregon survives USC. If so, let’s talk. If not . . .
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Game: #6 USC 34 (-10) @ #25 Notre Dame
What was supposed to happen? What the hell do you think was supposed to happen?!? It’s USC-Notre Dame!! The Irish haven’t been the Trojans in like 72 years!
What actually happened? Okay, USC won. But here’s what really happened, and why rookie QBs shouldn’t be trusted with your money: Southern Cal threw an interception with 11 minutes remaining, leading to an ND touchdown. Poof. There goes the cover.
I don’t want to hear anything about Clausen for Heisman either. The refs awarded him a “do over” at the goal line with one second remaining, and the guy still couldn’t get it done.
In the BCS standings, USC is currently looking up at Iowa and Cincinnati. (Let’s just hope the Hawkeyes and Bearcats remembered their underwear.) I get the sense Pete Carroll & Co. are happy to wait until both teams (and possibly others further ahead) inevitably self-destruct.
Best comment of the ESPN roundtable discussion on the BCS rankings goes to Brent Musburger, on the impact of USC’s loss to Washington earlier this season: “I’m not a computer, but that’s a bad loss!”
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Game: #7 Ohio State 18 (-14) @ Purdue 26
What was supposed to happen?
The mighty Buckeyes were supposed to saunter into West Lafayette, smack around the Boilermakers for awhile, and call it a day.
What actually happened? What an embarrassment. I think we should rescind OSU’s right to a Top 10 ranking indefinitely. At least until they can prove they will stop wasting our time.
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Game: #8 Cincinnati 34 (-2.5) @ #21 South Florida 17
What was supposed to happen? Let’s just say Cincinnati has our attention.
What actually happened? Dammit, Bearcat QB Pike suffered yet another injury. Nobody landed on him, he just came down awkwardly all on his own. While his backup looked capable, I think the clock is approaching midnight for UC.
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Game: #9 Miami (FL) 27 (-13) @ UCF 7
What was supposed to happen? I’m not really sure. Aren’t the Hurricanes dreamy, though?
What actually happened? Some have projected Miami, who will have a very tough time advancing much further past #10 in the BCS, to play Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. We can only hope.
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Game: #11 Iowa 20 @ Wisconsin 10 (-1.5)
What was supposed to happen? Wisconsin was favored to win this game. Over the #11 team in the country. The Big 10 makes no sense whatsoever.
What actually happened? Some have called Iowa’s style of play conservative or old-school. I prefer boring. I bet Iowa over USC in the 2002 Orange Bowl, having bought into the supposed advantages of “smashmouth” football. USC rolled the Hawkeyes by three touchdowns and my respect for traditional Big 10 football never recovered.
Iowa could potentially go undefeated this season and not play in the BCS title game. That is how little regard the HAL 9000 has for the Big 10 this year.
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Game: Colorado State 6 @ #12 TCU 44 (-22.5)
What was supposed to happen? Maybe the only true “lock” of the weekend, TCU was expected to pummel CSU.
What actually happened? Sure enough! Some things can still be relied upon in this world. How comforting.
At present, Texas Christian clings to the eighth spot in the BCS poll. If TCU can just survive against BYU and Utah, they should be in. (As an at-large team, anyhow.) And then we can all giggle for weeks during the build-up to the BCS bowls every time someone says “Horned Frogs.”
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Mike “Dr. Dude” Luce brings you The College Football Report in this space twice a week. He welcomes your comments.
Posted on October 20, 2009