By Dan O’Shea
The top three hitters in Yahoo! fantasy baseball right now are Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee; Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles; and Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto. This should not come as a complete surprise, given that Braun was anticipated to be a top 10 pick in many leagues, and Kemp and Bautista were not far behind.
Yet, before the season there also was reason to believe that all three were headed for at least a slight decline. Braun saw a drop in HRs, RBIs, SBs and batting average from 2009 to 2010; Kemp saw a 50-point drop in his average from 2009 to 2010, as well as dips in RBIs and SBs; and Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 HRs last year – how do you top that?
Trying to figure out which direction players’ stats are headed in is the most difficult thing about fantasy sports. Sometime, all the cues point in one direction, and they still end up being wrong. The difference, of course, is the human factor, something that not even the humans involved can predict. Playing stat trends is a huge part of the fantasy game, but never forget they can surprise you and head in the opposite direction.
Having said all this, if you are looking to read something into the stats of players who are still widely available, here are a few candidates:
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Posted on April 27, 2011