By Eric Emery
In American society, we spend inordinate amounts of time determining who is right. But who is always right? Some people say “The customer is always right” but most customer service departments nowadays don’t seem to think so. My wife believes she is always right, but winning every fight doesn’t make it so. I’d humbly submit that only one entity is 100% right:
Vegas.
Especially during football season. Which has arrived.
Let’s review.
Clue #1: I was just there and received a beating like I was a rented mule. Clue #2: Every bet receives a house edge. In general, a winning bet receives 90% profit, but a losing bet nets a 100% loss. So in other words, insofar as the sportsbook gets the same amount on each side of a line, the only guaranteed winner is Vegas.
I came to this realization while Vegas held my ass in their hands and said to me “Mr. Emery, here is your ass.” So instead of making the following bets in Vegas, I decided the potential financial loss remained less palatable than a free public embarrassment. So as part of my preseason predictions, here are a 10 Vegas Over/Under Lines, my predictions, and the Beachwood’s Over/Unders.
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Atlanta: 7.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Beachwood Over/Under: Number of times ESPN implies “The Falcons would have won if Michael Vick played” – and still is wrong: +/- 242.5
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Cleveland: 6 wins
Prediction: Under
Beachwood Over/Under: Difference between attendance between at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Cleveland home games: +/- 1,800,000
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Dallas 9 wins
Prediction: Over
Beachwood Over/Under: Number of times CBS uses the theme from Dallas as they show Terrell Owens yelling at Tony Romo: +/- 110.5
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Indianapolis: 10.5
Prediction: Over
Beachwood Over/Under: Money lost on Colts when Manning remembers he is actually a playoff choke artist: +/- $1.6 billion
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New York Jets: 7.5
Prediction: Over
Beachwood Over/Under: Number of times Bears fans say “We’d have won that game if we had Thomas Jones.”: +/- 1.4 million
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Oakland: 5
Prediction: Under
Beachwood Over/Under: Number of games Oakland really should bother playing – 0.5
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Seattle: 9
Prediction: Over
Beachwood Over/Under: Number of times the NFL broadcast will show stock footage of fish-throwing at the market: +/- 14.5
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Tennessee: 7
Prediction: Under
Beachwood Over/Under: Number of fans who invoke the Madden Curse after Vince Young tears his ACL: +/- 800,000
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My Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5
Prediction: Way Over
Beachwood Over/Under: Time wasted by ESPN to find a replacement for the “Bill Cowher Chin Shot” when showing Steelers new head coach: +/- 3.5 hours
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Your Chicago Bears: 10
Prediction: Under by one game
Beachwood Over/Under: Number of times fans gasp when Devin Hester is crushed by a defensive back: +/- Every Damn Time
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For more Emery, see the Kool-Aid archive, and the Over/Under archive. Emery accepts comments from Bears fans reluctantly and everyone else tolerably.
Posted on August 16, 2007