By Dan O’Shea
What can you count on after the first week of the baseball season, beside the certainty that a bunch of guys still hitting above .500?
You can count on at least a few superstars getting off to a slow start.
So it goes for Mark Texeira, Troy Tulowitski and Prince Fielder, who didn’t have a single home run between them as of Monday, and starting pitchers like Jake Peavy and Ricky Nolasco, who have looked terrible in their first two starts.
Fear not – all of these guys are notorious slow starters, and it’s only a matter of time before those hitters start looking like the MVP candidates they are supposed to be this season and those pitchers play up to their potential.
In particular, fantasy owners may have short patience for Peavy, who has moved from the National League to the so-called hitters’ league and from spacious his old home at spacious Petco Park to his new home at boxy U.S. Cellular Field.
However, Peavy’s best months tend to come later in the season, specifically in August, when he has 21 career wins, and September, when he has 18. His ERA also is generally lower in late summer, with a 2.61 ERA in August alone. His May outings tend to be good, too – 17 wins and a 2.81 ERA, but he does have a losing record over his career for June, at 11-14.
That means it could be a good time to buy low on Peavy from owners who have panicked after his first two starts and are looking to trade. His ERA may balloon under American League conditions (though he did have a 1.35 ERA in three starts for the White Sox late last season), but if you make a quiet trade now, you could get paid back with wins, strikeouts and possibly even complete games late in the season as your fantasy team makes a run at the playoffs.
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Fantasy Find of the Week: Chris Young, OF, Arizona.
A couple years ago, he looked like a budding 30 HR/30 SB man, but woeful plate discipline left him with a saggy batting average last year, and not many people noticed that he finished strong in 2009. In 2010, he’s started with 3HR and 11 RBIs in little more than a week. We’ll see if the .292 BA stick. Only 60% owned in Yahoo!
Fantasy Stud of the Week: Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas.
Albert Pujols and Tim Lincecum were inarguably the studliest hitter and pitcher of Week 1, but I want to give Cruz some press. He had five HRs and 11 RBIs his first week, and eight of his 11 hits were for extra bases.
Fantasy Dud of the Week: Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee.
A lot of people projected him maturing into an elite pitcher this year, but he’s started 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. His saving grace is usually strikeouts, and he does have 10 in 12 innings, but we actually expected more than one per inning.
Fantasy Match-up of the Week: Jorge de la Rosa, SP, Colorado.
High expectations for him this year. He started strong, but we’ll see if it’s for real against the Mets on Thursday. I’m predicting a win, and at least one strikeout per inning.
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Expert Wire
* Roto Arcade takes a closer look at a closer market turned upside down by a number of blown saves during the first week. So what else is new? Outside of the top few closers, relief pitcher performance is so hard to predict you might as well save closer for your last two picks or assume you will pick them off the waiver wire later. Don’t mind me – I’m just upset I picked Mike Gonzalez instead of Jon Rauch.
* RotoExperts likes De La Rosa, too, along with Jorge Cantu and others, including Edgar Renteria – remember him?
* Bleacher Report has early waiver wire pick-ups, including a young Cincinnati Reds pitcher who is not Aroldis Chapman. SP Mike Leake looked great against the Cubs over the weekend, but remember, it was the Cubs, and Leake also walked a bunch of guys.
* Fantasy Windup puts the spotlight on our old friend Scott Podsednik, who had six steals through Tuesday for Kansas City. He leads the league and is still showing the hitting touch he had last year in Chicago. Can it last?
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears in this space every Wednesday. Comments welcome. You can also read his about his split sports fan personality at SwingsBothWays, which isn’t about what it sounds like it’s about.
Posted on April 14, 2010