By Dan O’Shea
The admission that he used steroids earlier this decade couldn’t stop A-Rod from still being rated as a top 5 pick, and neither could lingering questions about whether he has been on steroids more recently. But it now appears that a cyst is his hip will do just that and more.
Alex Rodriguez still looked like a No. 3 or No. 4 pick to me, possibly even No. 2 because the Yankees line-up looks like such a promising run-scoring machine. But A-Rod had minor surgery on his right hip just days ago, and now will likely be out for at least the first month of the regular season. He’s also already scheduled to have a follow-up surgery after this season, and though the medical reports are casting his odds as pretty strong to have an otherwise healthy year, too much doubt has begun to stir.
Just the other day, I looked at the Yahoo! Player Ranker, which allows Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball members to vote on player rankings, and was not surprised to see A-Rod with an average draft position of about No. 22. Some people might be surprised it isn’t lower, but it’s probable A-Rod stock value has not yet hit bottom.
I can’t recommend drafting him in the first round, but I would endorse picking him around the end of the second round or very early third, with further strategy to pick a 3B back-up – maybe someone like Garrett Atkins or Ryan Zimmerman – earlier than you would normally have entertained the idea. Sadly, I already had one league that drafted early in which I felt I had to pick A-Rod when he was still available at No. 5 – this was after the steroids admission, but before the hip injury. Looks like my late-round filler Edwin Encarnacion will be starting for a while.
In other news, here’s my top 10 shortstops for this year:
1. Hanley Ramirez. Consensus overall No. 1 player, so no surprise here. Five-category stud.
2. Jose Reyes. Steals, triples, even a few homers. He’ll score even more runs this year.
3. Jimmy Rollins. He pressed at the plate last year, but should be looser this year with his ring pocketed.
4. Stephen Drew. Just scratched the surface last year: .291, 21 HRs, 67 RBIs. Upwardly mobile at No. 4.
5. Rafael Furcal. Looked like the hitting champ last year until injury. But average, steals put him at No. 5.
6. Alexei Ramirez. Lined up for a sophomore jinx, but he just seems to do everything so smoothly.
7. Derek Jeter. Definitely debatable putting him after the previous two. Still a great hitter, but slowing.
8. Michael Young. Average fell last year, but guessing he’ll bounce back and still score 100-plus runs.
9. Jhonny Peralta. Power streak elevates him. RBIs, runs pretty high, but average could be better.
10. J.J. Hardy. Similar power streak, in run-scoring line-up, Tough call over others at No. 10.
It’s true that you could make a case for any number of players to be among the second five on this list: Ryan Theriot, Mike Aviles, Troy Tulowitzki. I guess I leaned a little toward power and consistent batting average.
What are the experts saying this week?
* The Yahoo! Big Board puts A-Rod at No. 37. That sounds so strange, but I understand the logic. Still, I’d put him at least a little higher. The risk is the injury turns out to be worse and he gets shut down, but there’s a lot of upside if he doesn’t. A lot.
* The Sporting News tries to guess which middle infielders will have break-out years. Perpetually promising Howie Kendrick is on the list – I wonder what will happen to knock him out of action this year. Jed Lowrie, a SS/3B, is an interesting choice that I’ll have to remember.
* Ben Ice at Bleacher Report has his annual Big Fat Claims, his list of outrageous predictions for the fantasy baseball year. He may be alone in predicting a down year for superstar Tim Lincecum, but I guess that’s what the list is all about, right?
Fantasy Basketball Round-Up
Dwyane Wade is the No. 1-ranked player in the fantasy basketball universe (by season totals). He had 1,871 points this season as of Tuesday, beating out both Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, which despite Wade’s proven star status is just plain shocking.
Wade has recast himself from a being a player at the beginning of this season who was sliding out of the top 10 into a certain top three pick next year. With 16 to 19 games left in the season for most teams, his line of 29.7 points per game, 5.1 rebounds, 7.7 assist and 2.2 steals makes him the likely MVP.
Most of you, unfortunately, have no chance to have Wade on your team as the season comes to a close. Is there anyone out there at all on the waiver who’s still available and can contribute something? How about center Marc Gasol, who in the last week is averaging 21.3 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game. Gasol has been having a pretty good rookie season, with 11.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 1.1 BPG, and has had 15 double-doubles, but has been especially good the last 10 days or so.
From the expert wire:
* You know the season is winding down and material is getting thin when . . .
* ESPN’s Eric Karabell has some advice about who to finally drop because they aren’t contributing. How about Allen Iverson? Sad, but true.
* Bleacher Report recently had a post on the All-Sleeper Team. Rajon Rondo gets big votes from the peanut gallery – I wonder how many of them hail from Boston. I’d go with Nate Robinson or the unlisted Kevin Durant. Durant has penetrated the top 10 this year, but Robinson is a player who barely made the pre-season top 180, and now is ranked around 40.
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears every Wednesday, except when it appears on Thursday. Tips, comments, and suggestions are welcome.
Posted on March 11, 2009