By Dan O’Shea
Shawn Marion started slow this year, but suddenly he’s seeing more action than Rod Blagojevich at a Senate seat auction.
Marion was once called the NBA’s best athlete and all-around player, and delivering in every stat category made him a perennial first-round pick in most fantasy basketball drafts. But entering his 11th season after an injury year, working in a different system, and showing evidence of a statistical drop-off over the last three seasons, I saw plenty of reasons to avoid him in this year’s first round.
Still, I knew there were more than enough Marion-lovers out there to make up for my hesitation. In Yahoo! leagues, his draft position averaged 9.1, making him a definite first-rounder. Through the first dozen or so games this year, Marion was looking pretty bad, with three DNPs and a handful of single-digit scoring nights, and his stats across the broad showed little participation in offense or defense. Yet, in the last 10 games, and in the last four in particular, in which he’s had two double-doubles, he’s looked like the Marion of old. His 2008-09 line this far:
12.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.5 STLs, 1.4 BLKs
This is nowhere near his averages in the first half of this decade, but he’s definitely come alive – and that’s exactly why you should trade him. Now. Run for the hills. Sell, sell, sell, to borrow the phrase etched over the doorway of the Illinois governor’s office.
Marion can’t keep up the pace he’s been on lately. Also, it’s looking more and more like Dwyane Wade is taking over all scoring responsibilities for the Miami Heat, and that the Heat is destined to ride a wave of many high-scoring, poor-defense games this season. Consider him possible trade bait for another top 20 player with high PPG, like David West, Pau Gasol or even Baron Davis.
Speaking of trades, one of our fantasy experts is doing exactly that:
* Fantasy Basketball Cafe has a column about rules to mind when you are making fantasy trades. Trading is definitely tough in any kind of fantasy sports league because there is a lot of anxiety about getting fooled and looking like a fool to the rest of the league. But unless you are sitting pretty in first place, you always need to think about getting better. The FBC columnist is a pretty cautious type, but personally I love trading – especially in what you might call the second quarter of the season (from Game 20 or so to the All-Star Game). My favorite type of trade is sell high/buy low, and I think Marion is in exactly that kind of spot right now.
* NBA Fantasy Lab hints that if you don’t have a top point guard, you might as well dump assists for players with talent to give in multiple categories. The argument there is that after the top PGs, the lower tiers are really assist-specific players without much else to offer, so why not bolster other categories. Ironically, I read this a day after I lost one of my head-to-head match-ups in which assists were the deciding factor. It may work, but it depends on who’s available. Fantasy Lab does have some good suggestions for who you might seek out when you jettison your pass-happy PGs.
* NBA Skinny says not to worry about LeBron James, who has seen a dip in playing time and almost everything else except free throws while the Cleveland Cavaliers have been on a major run. The Cavs are going great, but count on James to take over again as the BNA season moves toward its second half. The Skinny also likes Mike Miller and Rodney Stuckney as up-and-comers.
Fantasy Football Round-Up
So, I was wrong to suggest last week that my first-place team was heading into its first playoff match-up, because of course first-place teams usually get a bye week to open the post-season. Still, I was not terribly encouraged by what my guys would have done had the week meant something. I have yet to figure out a way to deal with good players on great teams who clinch and then play it safe for the final weeks of the regular season – which are the key playoff weeks in the fantasy football world.
Case in point: Eli Manning.
Manning has had a very solid year driving the New York Giants along an easy path to the post-season. He should end the season better in almost every stat category than he did in 2007, particularly in TDs to INTs ratio: 20 to 8 so far this year, 23 to 20 total for 2007. Yet, the Giants have clinched and Manning’s stat slowdown began last week, with a paltry 123 passing yards and 1 TD – nothing negative, but certainly not enough. This week, Manning faces a tough Dallas defense, so I’m fearing the worst, perhaps a sub-100-yards passing game, which is fantasy death.
I don’t really have any pick-up options either; the only QB available in my 2-QB league is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has had his moments, but also has 6 TDs to 9 INTs. Well, it looks like Jamarcus Russell is available, but I might as well leave the position empty if I’m willing to sink that low. I guess Manning’s my man.
What do the experts say?
* Pick-Ups of the Week features a hot QB pick: Shaun Hill. But he’s long gone in my league. If you’re a Fantasy Fix regular, you know we recommended him weeks ago, but if he’s there for the taking in your league, go get him.
* The Talented Mr. Roto says to pick up the Giants’ back-up RBs Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw, because you know, Manning won’t be throwing, and apparently Brandon Jacobs won’t be running much either. He also likes two Raiders this week: WR Johnnie Lee Higgins and TE Zach Miller. That makes me wonder if I should actually consider picking up Russell at QB. Does he really have a chance against New England’s pass defense?
* The Bleacher Report highlights the monster night (actually monster fourth quarter) that RB DeAngelo Willams had for Carolina against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football: 186 rushing yards (99 of which came in the final quarter), 2 TDs. Williams is just the kind of guy who could make a playoff run for a fantasy owner who squeaked into the post-season play – and ruin it for a supposed higher-ranked fantasy club that has to face his squad. Uh-oh, I just check my playoff match-up, and guess who my guys are going up against this week . . .
–
Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears every Wednesday, except for the occasional Thursday. Tips, comments, and suggestions are welcome.
Posted on December 10, 2008