By Dan O’Shea
The NBA season is still so young – only in its third week – yet trends both encouraging and discouraging are establishing themselves. For instance, if you ignored point guards in your draft until the late rounds, as I did sort of by accident, you are paying dearly for it. Six of the top 10 players by per-game averages in Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball so far are PGs. That in itself may not be too surprising, but some of the names are:
* Chris Paul -20. 8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 11.6 APG
* LeBron James -29.8 PPG, 8 RPG, 7.3 APG
* Dwyane Wade -27.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 7.3 APG
* Joe Johnson -26 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.9 APG
* Jason Kidd -10.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 8.2 APG
* Devin Harris -23 PPG, 4 RPG, 6.2 APG
* Amare Stoudemire -23.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2 APG
* Chauncey Billups -17.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.4 APG
* Al Jefferson -22.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.9 APG
* Dirk Nowitzki -24 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.2 APG
This list doesn’t provide the whole story. For example, Kidd’s ranking is helped by his 2.8 steals per game – second in the league. Paul, Wade, Johnson, Kidd, Harris and Billups are your PGs on this list. It’s no surprise, of course, that Paul is the No. 1 player in fantasyland so far, as he was the No. 1 pick in most leagues. Wade, Johnson and Billups are all looking stronger than expected, with Billups’ move to Denver in particular paying dividends. The big, big surprises are Kidd and Harris, who were swapped for one another last year. Kidd has been stellar for a very poor Dallas team, and Harris, who was expected to find his niche in New Jersey and have a break-out year, is far exceeding expectations.
So, who’s missing from the top 10 list? For starters, where’s Kobe? He still makes the top 20, but with the Lakers on a roll, his somewhat sub-par season so far is a surprise. Who’s disappointing? Kevin Garnett and Shawn Marion are both well off their career PPG averages.
Let’s check out the fantasy basketball experts for more observations:
* Fantasy Basketball Cafe weighs in this week on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, the big man from Cameroon, a rookie who wasn’t drafted in most fantasy leagues and who, at the time, was thought to be a questionable early second-round pick in the NBA draft. He’s been picking up the slack since Grizzlies’ teammate Charlie Villaneuva has been injured, and with Memphis looking for bright spots (especially with Mike Conley underachieving so far), you can expect Mbah a Moute to lock himself in as a scoring and rebound threat.
* NBA Skinny highlights PG/SG Anthony Morrow, who had 37 points in his first career start for Golden State, even though had done little in three previous appearances. He seems to be at least a pretty strong play for now. The biggest part of his game is the three-pointer, but you might need to put up with fewer assists if you swap out another PG for him.
* Eric Karabell likes Jeff Green as a Hidden Gem for his 15.3 PPG and 6.2 APG. I didn’t think he was all that much of a sleeper, as he was drafted in the eighth round in both my fantasy drafts. Right now, he is out-playing Kevin Durant, who has been having a bit of a sophomore slump.
Pigskin Poop
The big news in the fantasy football world is that Matt Cassel has stolen Tom Brady’s identity (does Giselle Bundchen know?). Cassel hasn’t been bad at all most weeks since taking over for the injured Brady; inconsistent, maybe, with 7 TDs and 7 INTs, but he’s been making up for his flubs with pure yardage. In Week 11, Cassel passed for 400 yards, 3 TDs and – wait for it – 0 INTs.
As many fantasy leagues head into playoffs at the same time that some NFL starters start getting gentle treatment to save them for the post-season, Cassel could be a great option. For instance, if you have Eli Manning starting at QB most weeks and have Cassel on the bench, Cassel may now be worth a look.
Elsewhere, Peyton Manning has begun his second half comeback and should be a good bet this week against a sub-par San Diego passing defense.
The fantasy flubs worth mentioning this week include two running backs who usually have strong second halves but who have both become non-factors in recent weeks. Steven Jackson is the biggest disappointment, having missed three games and about to miss a fourth this week, despite having an injury that continues to be called a strain. The other MIA RB is Edgerrin James, who looked to have a comeback year this season, but has only 385 rushing yards and 3 TDs, getting eclipsed not only by fab rookie Tim Hightower, but also J.J. Arrington, both of whom probably have more value in Arizona’s pass-happy offense. Former fantasy stud James had only 1 rushing yard in Week 11, the same number tallied by our wished-for Week 11 star Shaun Alexander.
And the fantasy football expert survey says:
* Yahoo! Pick-Ups of the Week stars Shaun Hill, another Tier 2 QB who is doing some great things at exactly the right time to contribute in fantasy league play-offs. WR Justin Gage also gets high marks. He’s been a favorite passing target of Kerry Collins on the 10-0 Tennessee Titans, but you have to wonder if the Titans are about ready to lose. Also, LenDale White really gets most of the scoring chances on this team.
* Bleacher Report likes RB Warrick Dunn, QB Aaron Rodgers (even though he doesn’t get to play the Bears again this week) and WR Donnie Avery. Dunn is going up against the Lions, who have the worst rush defense in the NFL.
* The Talented Mr. Roto recommends QB Kerry Collins and RB/Last Man Standing in Denver Peyton Hillis. Collins was among the top point collectors in Week 11, but again, the Titans are about set for a bad game, and it could be this week against the Jets. Hillis had 2 TDs in Week 11. I wonder if Tatum Bell gets more work this week against the increasingly poor Oakland rush defense. Still, as TMR points out. Hillis is the goal line choice.
Next week: Our first annual Fantasy Fix Turkey Bowl.
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears every Wednesday, except for the occasional Thursday. Tips, comments, and suggestions are welcome.
Posted on November 19, 2008