By Dan O’Shea
What does Opening Day really mean in the fantasy world? It’s nice to get off to a strong start, of course, but don’t get too panicky just because CC Sabathia had one of his worst outings ever in his Yankee debut against the Orioles. Sabathia has never been good on Opening Day, and practically has made the argument against starting him to start off the season. He did turn in a truly terrible line this week that was virtually absent of fantasy points: 4.1 IP, 5 BBs, 0 Ks (!), 8 hits, 6 ER. That, in turn, already has the New York media on his back, but wait until Sabathia gets rolling sometime in May, along with a Yankee offense that will give him more breathing room.
Opening Day did provide a gut check for fantasy owners who, faced with picking the first pitcher in their drafts, chose Sabathia over Johan Santana. That’s exactly what I did with one of my teams. Santana’s Opening Day line was much better than Sabathia’s: 5.2 IP, 4 BBs, 7 Ks, 3 hits, 1 ER. Yet, to me, choosing one over the other was a complete coin toss. Both are primarily and historically second-half pitchers. Many people are worried that Sabathia was overworked last year, but Santana also missed a bit spring work with a mild injury. Neither will be pressed toward complete games like they were last year. One interesting thing about Santana’s team, the New York Mets, is that they invested a lot on a revamped bullpen, and could be in a rush to use it in close games and tied games. I still think Sabathia will end up with more wins and more IPs, though we’ll see if time forces me to revise that opinion.
Meanwhile, if you are the sort who rushes to the waiver wire right after Opening Day, you might want to look at a couple guys who weren’t drafted in many leagues: Emilio Bonifacio and Adam Jones. Bonifacio, at 2B, didn’t make the top 100 pre-season ranks, but had an inside-the-park homer, went 4-5 and had three stolen bases on Opening Day. Who knows how long he can keep it up, but 2B is such a shallow talent position, you might consider taking him on the SB potential alone if you aren’t happy with who you have now. Jones, OF, meanwhile, was a top 200 player in pre-season ranks, and is known to have 20 HR/20 SB potential (some might even call that a conservative estimate). Jones went 3-3 on Opening Day with 2 BBs, a triple and 2 RBI.
Otherwise, try not to panic and just enjoy the ups and downs of the first week of the season.
Meanwhile, spring has sprung, and the fantasy baseball experts elsewhere on the Web are singing their tunes full-throated:
* Remember Andruw Jones? Brad Evans, of Yahoo! Weekly Rundown does. Jones has been in a tailspin for three seasons, but may be on the verge of playing a role with the Texas Rangers. With the Rangers’ park and lineup, it might be the only situation in MLB that could work for Jones, the only way for him to re-discover 50-HR power. He will be worth watching closely, but it is not even clear he will get regular playing time, so don’t jump on him just yet.
* The Wall Street Journal continues a fairly recent trend of media heavyweights deigning to cast their eyes upon the fantasy sports world. The finance bible has a story exploring how player ownership patterns among fantasy baseball fanatics may be ahead of the curve in forecasting which of the real-world teams are destined for glory in a given year. For example, last year’s Tampa Bay Rays were a surprise to Las Vegas odds-makers, but Rays players made up a fairly high percentage of owned fantasy players. By that logic, this year’s Rays could be the Cincinnati Reds, the story suggests.
All I know is that the two things that excited fantasy owners so much about last year’s Rays are the same two things that have us seeing greatness in Reds players this season: Great young hitters and great young pitchers. Both appeal to the fantasy owners’ mission to find break-out players just when they are about to break out.
Still, there are far more things that determine real world success -coaching being just one – than fantasy success. As we have noted in the past, all we care about in the fantasy world are the individual numbers.
* The season’s true opener, the Atlanta Braves’ Sunday night win over the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, showcased a couple of surprises: The return of Braves OF Jeff Francoeur to power-hitting (at least for one night) and the first MLB home run of Braves OF Jordan Schafer. The Talented Mr. Roto at ESPN confesses he had big things in mind for Francoeur last year. Will the one-time phenom get off to a good start this year?
Meanwhile, TMR predicts big things for the Cubs’ SP Sean Marshall this year. Uh-oh. Regarding Schafer, he has interesting lefty power potential, but let’s see how he performs into May – and in less hitter-friendly ballparks than Philly’s – before we get too excited.
Fantasy Basketball Round-Up
There is not much more to say about fantasy basketball – how many times have I said that recently? There are only the last-minute swaps to make if you are still in your league playoffs and happen to have someone like Manu Ginobli, who is now out for the rest of the season.
In that case, there’s Francisco Garcia, an SG/SF who was supposed to have a break-out year but has not, yet has collected 80 points in his last four games while Sacramento’s Kevin Martin has been injured. There’s also fellow Sacramento flex-position master Jason Thomposn, SF/PF/C, who has averaged 15 points per game over the last month.
Other than that, despite all the excitement over the just-ended NCAA basketball tourney, there is not much excitement at all for next year’s rookie class, at least not in the way of immediate impact players.
Oklahoma Forward Blake Griffin declared for the NBA draft, probably making him the consensus No. 1 pick, but it’s not clear when he could go in a fantasy draft. He seems like a real long-shot to make the top 100 in most fantasy drafts.
We’ll review the potential rookie class again as more players declare for the draft coming up in about two months.
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears every Wednesday. Comments welcome. You can also read his about his split sports fan personality at SwingsBothWays, which isn’t about what it sounds like It’s about.
Posted on April 8, 2009