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Fantasy Fix

By Dan O’Shea

A week after we suggested no one cares about kickers, NFL booters made us pay by deciding three games in the waning seconds, sending another into OT and factoring heavily in at least six games. By now, everyone in the Chicago area is achingly familiar Week 6’s most prolific kicker, legendary Bronco-turned-Dirty Bird Jason Elam.
Elam kicked 5 FGs, including the literally-last-second 48-yarder, his longest of the day. He now leads Yahoo! Fantasy Football in kicker points, but may have been undrafted or unclaimed in many leagues thus far (still only 34 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues as of late Monday).


Top 5 Kickers
* Jason Elam: 16 FGs (league-leading seven from 40-49 YDs), 13 PATs
* Matt Prater: 13 FGs (league-leading four from 50+YDs), 17 PATs
* Joe Nedney: 14 FGs (four in Week 6; only 17-percent owned in Yahoo!), 13 PATs
* David Akers: 13 FGs, 18 PATs
* Ryan Longwell: 14 FGs, 9 PATs
Most of these guys are complementing moderately-successful offenses, which is really what you want to look for in a kicker. If he gets plenty of PATs but no field goal chances, it should guarantee a minimum number of points per week, but he won’t help you all that much with those 40+ and 50+ FGs that can really make him a valuable fantasy team contributor. Longwell is the exception in the Top 5, providing a lot of scoring for a truly inept offense.
QBs
Tony Romo looks to be out for four weeks with a broken finger, which made me feel badly for the guy in my 2-QB league who landed both Brady and Romo, but not too bad. If you’re in a 1-QB league, you probably have plenty of choices, if you’re in a 2-QB league, you might as well grab Romo’s sub, the aged Brad Johnson, lest you get stuck with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who probably will have his molecules re-arranged this week against the Pittsburgh defense.
Here’s a few QBs still less than 70-percent owned in Yahoo! leagues:
* Kyle Orton: (seriously, only 62 percent owned as Tuesday morning) 1,386 Pass YDs, 8 TDs, 4 INTs
* Derek Anderson: (67 percent owned, and back on track after MNF) 853 Pass YDs, 5 TDs, 6 INTs
* Chad Pennington: (33 percent owned, leading tricky Miami offense) 1,101 Pass YDs, 5 TDs, 2 INTs
* Matt Ryan: (35 percent owned, bye, but good match-ups Weeks 9-12) 1,164, 5 TDs, 3 INTs
* Jeff Garcia: (19 percent owned, back from injury against woeful Seattle D) 487 Pass YDs, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
RBs
Meanwhile, the biggest Week 6 Fantasy Football performer you have never heard of is . . . Patrick Cobbs, RB.
* Cobbs, Week 6: 138 Rec YDs, 2 TDs
Cobbs is buried under Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on Miami’s RB depth chart. He probably will not have another week like this the rest of the year, but isn’t that what so-called fantasy experts always say before unknowns like Cobbs manage a string of big weeks? It’s unlikely, but Miami does seem to be pulling out a lot of tricks on offense with Brown getting snaps and Pennington executing flea flickers. Pennington also is passing to the RB a lot. He could be worth consideration if you are getting slammed with bye-week sitters.
Hoopsville Draft Day
We now turn our attention to Fantasy Basketball, as many fantasy hoops draft likely will be held this week and next week. We’ll have a broader position-by-position overview next week, but here’s my Top 20 picks and 2008-09 sleeper picks:
Top 20 Studs
1. Chris Paul, PG
2. LeBron James, SF
3. Kobe Bryant, SG
4. Amare Stoudemire, PF/C
5. Dirk Nowitzki, PF
6. Elton Brand, PF/C
7. Dwyane Wade, PG/SG
8. Kevin Martin, SG
9. Deron Williams, PG
10. Chris Bosh, PF/C
11. Dwight Howard, C
12. Caron Butler, SF
13. Danny Granger, SG/SF
14. Shawn Marion, SF/PF
15. Pau Gasol, PF/C
16. Kevin Garnett, PF
17. Paul Pierce, SG/SF|
18. Carlos Boozer, PF/C
19. Baron Davis, PG
20. Jose Calderon, PG
COMMENTARY: Paul, as an all-around stud, seems to be a consensus No. 1 pick this year. I’m knocking Stoudemire down a notch because he’s already suffered a minor pre-season injury, and tends to have bad luck in that area. Brand will have great impact in Philly. Howard is set to have a monster year. Garnett’s minutes-per-game will continue a downward trend. Calderon will be even better than expected, heading up a strong Toronto attack and primed to finish with more assists than everybody except Paul and D. Williams.
Top Sleepers
1. Mike Conley, PG: He really came on strong at the end of last season after being lost in the Memphis mix and injured earlier in his rookie outing. Memphis lost big-time scorers in Gasol and Mike Miller, and Conley should pick up a lot of the slack. Per-Game Prediction: 16.5 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals
2. Greg Oden, C: Former No. 1 picks can’t be sleepers? We know Oden will be good, but I think he’ll be among the leaders in rebounds and blocks despite what will probably be tender treatment from the Portland coaching staff. Per-Game Prediction: 14 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.5 blocks.
3. Spencer Hawes, C: He didn’t see all that much playing time last year, but its seems like Brad Miller could be headed out of Sacramento this season, leaving the C job to Hawes. Even if that doesn’t happen, he sees more playing time. Per-Game Prediction: 12 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2 blocks.
Next week, we’ll draft our championship-winning team.

Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears weekly, analyzing fantasy football and basketball trends with the goal of helping you win the envy of your league, the ire of your spouse and one of those little virtual trophies. Send Dan your gripes and gratuities if so inclined.

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Posted on October 15, 2008