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Fantasy Fix

By Dan O’Shea

We join this NFL season already in progress.
So, you figured you’d be too busy watching the Cubs and Sox play their way to a crosstown World Series to pay attention to your fantasy football league draft. You just hoped all the buzz about J.T. O’Sullivan, Ray Rice and Darren McFadden was warranted, and then phoned it in.
Well, we’re coming up on Week 6, and here’s what you’ve missed, position by position:


QB
J.T. O’Sullivan is not quite the next Tom Brady, or even the next Jon Kitna, but Aaron Rodgers, while not the next Brett Favre, could be at least the next Ben Roethlisberger, Version 2007. Confused? Take a look at the numbers:
* O’Sullivan 2008: 1,093 Pass YDs, 7 Pass TDs, 6 INTs
* Rodgers 2008: 1,274 Pass YDs, 9 Pass TDs, 4 INTs
* Roethlisberger 2007 (first five games): 1,013 Pass Yds, 9 Pass TDs, 3 INTs
Rodgers hasn’t been mistake-free, but fantasy drafters who took a chance must like the results. He also has 2 rushing TDs. True, Rodgers has thrown all of his INTs in the last two weeks, and his only truly big game was Week 2 against a Detroit pass defense that just made Kyle Orton look like Dan Fouts, but Rodgers should have a big game coming Week 6 against the equally bad Seattle pass defense.
Meanwhile, O’Sullivan hasn’t completely left unsatisfied those who bought the hype surrounding his reunion with Mike Martz in San Francisco, but he should really only be an option in 2 QB leagues for now. He has a tough Week 6 match-up against the Philadelphia defense, which itself is looking to make up for a couple bad weeks.
So, who’s the next Brett Favre? That would be Brett Favre, though his numbers were helped big time by a record-setting 6 TD performance in Week 4.
* Old Man Favre: (Week 5 bye) 935 Pass YDs, 12 TDs, 4 INTs
What else? Oh, yeah, Brady is out for the season, meaning whoever jumped on him in the first round of this year’s draft started the season 0-2 (after realizing Matt Cassel wasn’t the answer) and likely is hoping a late pick-up (Chad Pennington?) manages to hold his own.
RB
Matt Forte is everything Ray Rice and Darren McFadden were supposed to be, but aren’t. Michael Turner is more like the new L.J. than the new L.T., but that’s OK. Frank Gore and Ronnie Brown surprised everyone by just being themselves.
* Forte: 383 Rush YDs, 2 TDs; 172 Rec. YDs, 2 TDs
* Rice: 85 Rush YDs, 0 TDs; 19 Rec. YDs, 0 TDs
* McFadden: (Week 5 bye) 272 Rush YDs, 1 TD; 43 Rec. YDs, 0 TDs
* Turner: 543 Rush YDs, 6 TDs; 11 Rec. YDs, 0 TDs
* Gore: 423 Rush YDs, 3 TDs; 180 Rec. YDs, 1 TD
* Brown: (Week 4 bye) 286 Rush YDs, 6 TDs; 64 Rec. YDs, 0 TD
There’s some question whether Forte can keep up the numbers, with Orton really starting to grow into his neck beard as a passer. Turner and Gore look like the real deal. Rice is the forgotten man after a strong pre-season. Could McFadden benefit from a new coach coming in?
Brown could qualify as one of this year’s big surprises if he keeps building after a slow start (his numbers are also low because of a Week 4 bye). He was devalued in a lot of drafts with the return of Ricky Williams, but in his last two games has reminded everyone he’s equally adept at rushing and receiving (as well as passing, with a TD throw in Week 3). Williams has looked good at times, but he hasn’t helped his long-term value by admitting he fought the urge to get baked during the bye week.
The under-achiever of the year might be Brian Westbrook. I know, 6 TDs total, but under 200 YDs rushing and scaring his owners yet again with injury problems. It seems like there’s a “Q” next to his name every single week.
WR
T.O. is tied for the league lead in TDs, but complaining about not getting the ball. However, maybe he should be complaining if Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald a bunch of others – even impressive-but-dopey rookie DeSean Jackson – all have more receiving yards?
* T.O.: 331 Rec. YDs., 5 TDs
* Jennings: 569 Rec. YDs., 3 TDs
* Fitzgerald: 467 Rec. YDs., 4 TDs
* Jackson: 335 Rec. YDs., 1 TD
Honorable mentions: One goes to Anquan Boldin, who snagged 5 TDs in the first four weeks before absorbing what was literally a face-fracturing end zone hit against the Jets. He may not be back until Week 7 unless Arizona feels needy. Another to Chris Chambers, suddenly useful in a high-flying but inconsistent San Diego offense. He also had 5 TDs in the first four weeks.
TE
A lot of the names you’d expect – Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Tony Scheffler, Chris Cooley – are doing big things. Yet, what a boring position this has become, as it seems like the days of super-stellar TE numbers are over. Tony Gonzalez is suffering – loudly – on a very poor Kansas City team. One big surprise: Dustin Keller might be next Bubba Franks, at least in Favre’s eyes, though he has only had one big game. Ready to break out: Kellen Winslow, who has been mediocre in what was supposed to be his big year, though you mostly can blame the woeful Cleveland offense.
* Witten: 442 Rec. YDs, 2 TDs
* Gates: 217 YDs, 3 TDs
* Scheffler: 259 YDs, 2 TDs
* Gonzalez: 193 YDs, 2 TDs
* Cooley: 288 Rec. YDs, 1 TD
* Winslow: 170 Rec. YDs, 1 TD
K
I know, who cares about kickers. But Matt Prater (DEN) already has 4 FGs from 50+ and 15 PATs complimenting the Mike Shanahan Offensive Experience. He leads the league in both those categories, and thus probably leads most fantasy leagues in total kicker points – even though he probably wasn’t drafted in many leagues because he barely played last year.
* Prater: 12 FGs, 15 PATs
D
I’m in two leagues that play three defenders on individual stats rather than full defenses. If you’re in that kind of league, you have to like Patrick Willis, John Abraham, James Harrison and Cortland Finnegan. Predictably, Tennessee, the NY Giants, Baltimore and Carolina have brought the stoutest team defenses.
* Willis: 38 tackles (league lead)
* Abraham: 7 sacks (league lead)
* Harrison: 6.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles (league lead)
* Finnegan: 4 INTs (tied for league lead)
* Tennessee: 11. 2 PPG
* NY Giants: 12.3 PPG
* Baltimore: 14 PPG
* Carolina: 14 PPG
Best Rookies
Forte and DeSean Jackson we already mentioned, but Tim Hightower and Eddie Royal also have made good on the hype surrounding them.
* Hightower (RB): 110 Rush YDs, 5 TDs; 92 Rec. YDs
* Royal (WR): 321 Rec. YDs, 2 TDs; 125 Ret. YDs
What to watch for in Week 6
At QB, Tony Romo and Drew Brees should have their biggest weeks yet against vulnerable Ds, Arizona and Oakland, respectively.
At RB, Adrian Peterson should finally have a really big week against Detroit, which has the worst Rush D in the league; former NIU star Burner Turner should have fun back in the Chicago area running over the Bears; and Clinton Portis should get busy against troubled St. Louis.
At WR, it will be all T.O. all the time, both because Romo will be passing more and because Cowboys, Inc., probably will tell Romo this week to make sure T.O. gets the ball. Fitzgerald also should get many chance with Boldin still likely out or at least a little dizzy.
“Lastly, the Cubs and Sox may be done, but Week 6 in the NFL means the season isn’t half over yet. It isn’t too late to fix your fantasy year if these guys are available as pick-ups:
* Greg Olsen (TE), whose returns will grow along with Orton’s
* Domenik Hixon (WR), who has earned himself more grabs from Eli Manning, even with Plaxico Burress coming back
* Maurice Morris (RB), who is definitely not the next Shaun Alexander, but of course, neither is Shaun Alexander

Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix will appear weekly, analyzing fantasy football and basketball trends with the goal of helping you win the envy of your league, the ire of your spouse and one of those little virtual trophies.

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Posted on October 8, 2008