By Steve Rhodes
So about the Sun-Times/ABC7 Chicago poll that I see a lot of other media folks – and other interested parties – retweeting and citing mindlessly, without thinking critically about just what it is they are endorsing . . .
Poll respondents are also “randomly selected” and 75% of them say they don’t have a kid in CPS. Other results are weird, too: 62% said CPS kids would be hurt worst by a strike. WTF, other 38%? Looks like a shitty poll, tbh
— Beachwood Reporter (@BeachwoodReport) October 15, 2019
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Now let’s break it down. Does the poll show how many folks surveyed support a strike, as those citations say? No. That is flat out wrong.
The poll question was this:
To be sure, many respondents would take this question to mean, “Do you support a strike or not?”
But many others might take the question as asked: “Do you support the possibility of a strike?”
I have no idea why the pollsters would put it this way. But there is a huge difference between that and asking if someone outright supports a strike. As I tweeted, it’s like the difference in polls that ask respondents if they support “an impeachment inquiry” and impeachment themselves. And then, you have the fact that to many impeachment means removal from office, which it does not. (For starters, see: How To Know Which Impeachment Polls To Believe.)
For example, I support the possibility of a strike. That does not mean I support a strike.
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Now, ABC7 says they polled were “randomly selected people.” Yikes. That is not accepted polling practice. The Sun-Times says those polled were voters. I don’t know if that means registered voters, which it often does, or likely voters, which usually means those who have voted in the last two or three elections. I don’t know if those elections include local, or, in the case of presidential polling, for example, federal. I don’t know because the Sun-Times and ABC7 don’t tell us.
According to ABC7, 75 percent of those polled do not have children in CPS. Does this mirror the city’s population? Why not separate out those with children in CPS and those without? (Because it would cost more?)
We also learn from the Sun-Times that the polling was automated. It sounds to me like the polling universe was created as a sample of the city as to be reflective of the overall population in terms of race, gender, etc. It seems to me this is just a badly done poll that does not meet the standards of journalism. I’m not nitpicking; these are the elements that make for good or bad polling.
Finally, why do this poll right now? It would be one thing if teachers went on strike and then you polled the public to see “which side they are on.” It’s another to poll a moving target, when progress is made, and then unmade, as proposals and negotiation positions shift. What is it exactly even that people are being asked to support or oppose? Again, it seems like the general notion of teachers being able to strike, not the specific issues at hand in this case. (I’m a fan of asking poll respondents first how closely they are following an issue, and even being asked to demonstrate a familiarity with what they are being asked about.)
Anyway, those headlines are wrong, the conclusions are wrong, and the punditry is based on wrong, being based on wrongness and all.
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