By Thomas Chambers
These are two races players will need to tread upon quite cautiously. The query looms: Do you try to beat ’em?
Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta each run Saturday in what are really their one and only preps for their showdown in the April 9 Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park. Rachel runs in The New Orleans Ladies at Fair Grounds and Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita.
The biggest taboo is to raise the specter of either one losing this week, before the two goddesses square off in Hot Springs next month. The Daily Racing Form has provided us with “What I did on my winter vacation” pieces for both Rachel and Zenyatta.
In a variation of the old “Lefty’s hamhock oughta be ready by Opening Day,” it was this from Zenyatta’s connections: “About three weeks after the Breeders’ Cup, she started to sharpen up,” (trainer John) Shirreffs said. “It’s been pretty much the same all along. Now she has a little more wind. That’s the big difference. She’s probably put on 25 pounds. It’s hard to say with her because she’s so big. She looks really strong.”
And from Rachel’s camp: “She’s definitely not a normal horse in that sense,” (trainer Steve) Asmussen said. “Usually when you get started back with a horse after being off that long, they’re a little sloppy and slow at first. She was not like that at all.”
Rachel, 1-5 on the morning line and carrying high weight of 123 pounds, takes on four others. Trainer Steve Asmussen has already said Rachel won’t be 100 percent for this race.
They’ll be traversing the Bermuda Triangle of needing to get the win, getting in a good exertion, and not overextending her in the effort.
The wiseguys all give Zardana the best chance to beat her. Like Monte Markham “bailing out” over Stalag 13, you can smell a spy for the thousand miles from New Orleans to Southern California, where she’s based. She’s trained by John Shireffs, who has quite a few horses. One of them is: Zenyatta.
Rachel is capable of rating just off the leader, but Zardana rider David Flores just might try to engage Rachel to make the going tougher. Zardana is a perfect three-for-three on the dirt in South America – by an average of 13 lengths – and has won four in the U.S. in races all on turf or synthetic. Her most recent were an impressive effort to win the Bayakoa Handicap at Hollywood on December 5 and finishing a fading fourth in the Santa Maria at Santa Anita Feb. 13.
I don’t like Zardana to beat Rachel. If she locks on to the Horse of the Year, she just might burn herself out at a distance that might be a bit more than her limit. I don’t like her two-off angle, second race after a layoff, because those are the races that illustrate her inconsistency. And will Flores understand how long the Fair Grounds stretch is? That might depend on if he’s really trying to win.
The horse for the course is Clear Sailing, three-for-four in her career and unbeaten here. Old warrior and comebacker Shane Sellers is in the saddle and he’ll do fine at Fair Grounds. She closed big-time last out in the Pelleteri in recording her best Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), jumping from 84 to 92.
I kind of like the horse Clear Sailing beat, Fighter Wing, although I am wary of Fighter Wing’s on-the-lead style. She may not get the lead she needs in this race. But if she does, and can set a sensible pace, she might improve off of her career best Beyer, 92, an 11-point jump from her best previous dirt figure, at Hawthorne last October. Forget Unforgotten. She’d have to run better than the race of her life and won’t get the slop or synthetic she’d probably need to do it.
It should be Rachel Alexandra all the way, although her last workout did not go well. Don’t be surprised if they suspend Show betting and keep an eye on the pools. The bridge jumpers might surface.
Out West, you tell me if any of them can beat Zenyatta. Santa Anita officials came to their senses and abandoned the idea of suspending the handicap conditions of the Santa Margarita to make it easier for Zenyatta to win.
She’ll carry a high weight of 127 pounds, 12 more than Striking Dancer. All of the other horses will average 111.5 pounds.
As for Zenyatta getting beat, it doesn’t seem remotely likely. Only two other horses have won graded stakes races this year: Pretty Unusual in the Grade II El Encino on Jan. 17, and Striking Dancer in the Grade II LaCanada on Feb. 14.
It looks like it would be all that Pretty Unusual can do to win at nine furlongs, whether Zenyatta is in the race or not. Striking Dancer had a nice closing kick in recording her best Beyer in the LaCanada win, but how will she ever match Zenyatta’s legendary closing ability?
Gripsholm Castle, the mostly British-raced four-year-old, is lightly raced and finished second in the LaCanada.
The only way Zenyatta loses this race is if Mike Smith screws up and doesn’t get her going soon enough, or too soon. She hasn’t stopped training and should be ready to go. She’s a veteran. That’s it.
Weather reports look good for both Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, so they both should go.
In typical Thoroughbred racing fashion, you’ll have to hunt to see the races. They’ll be shown live on Horse Racing Television (HRTV). TVG will probably run them on a short delay, but then you’ll have to suffer the outside-looking-in tee-hees of their announcers. NTRA.com has promised they’ll stream the races live. But scope out the site beforehand, navigation is not the tops. Rachel Alexandra’s scheduled post time is 5:15 Central and Zenyatta’s bell rings at 5:36 Central.
It will simply be a treat just to see them both back on the race track.
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Thomas Chambers is the Beachwood’s man on the rail. He brings you TrackNotes every Friday. He welcomes your comments.
Posted on March 12, 2010