By Dan O’Shea
NBA teams kept trading right up until the last minute before the trading deadline last week – or at least three of them did: our hometown Bulls, the Sacramento Kings and the New York Knicks. What those trades yielded for the Bulls is a debate only just getting started, but a few fantasy effects have since become clear.
To recap, the Bulls traded Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden and some baggage to Sacramento for Brad Miller and John Salmons. They also traded the inactive Larry Hughes to the Knicks for Tim Thomas. So, who are the fantasy winners and losers?
Big Winner: Spencer Hawes. The power forward/center for Sacramento was a chic sleeper pick in many drafts, and started out strong, but he’s been limited by injuries and the older Miller’s continued toughness in earning playing time. Now, in the last week with Miller gone, Hawes has averaged nearly 40 minutes per game and hasn’t wasted it, scoring in double figures four games in a row and averaging about 10 rebounds per game in that same stretch.
Moderate Winners: Miller, Thomas, Hughes, Nocioni, Gooden. You could argue Miller was brought in more to mentor Joakim Noah than take playing time from Noah, Tyrus Thomas and Aaron Gray, but Miller is still very tough and versatile, and will get his shots. Thomas may have been a disaster during his first tour with the Bulls, but he’sbbeen proving them wrong ever since, and should get his playing time this time around. Hughes gains just by coming off the inactive list. I don’t know if he figures enough in the Knicks attack to come off waivers, where he remains in most leagues, but he should be watched closely in the week ahead.
As for Nocioni and Gooden, they probably will benefit because with Salmons and Miller gone, Sacramento needs two more scorers to figure in the mix with Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia.
Big Loser: Luol Deng. This is not for certain, but Salmons has been outstanding at small forward this year. He also plays shooting guard and could challenge Ben Gordon for minutes, but Deng with his nagging injuries and inconsistencies is the more likely victim as Salmons presses to stay on the floor.
What do some of the other fantasy experts have to say this week?
* Bleacher Report has some analysis of last-minute trades, too. They think Salmons owners will lose out because their man will not be starting in Chicago, but I’m betting he’ll have more minutes than Deng within a week.
* ESPN’s Eric Karabell has a humorous ode to Golden State coach Don Nelson and how his team’s lack of defense (allowing 111 points per game) helps so many opposing players beef up their offensive stats.
* And, finally, I’m linking to FantasyBasketball.com primarily because there is a pretty interesting poll there asking who you think the biggest loser – among players – is following the trade deadline. Three of the four choices named are the results of the Bulls’ trades: Miller, Salmons and Thomas. That’s interesting because Miller and Salmons came from a last-place team and Thomas came from a squad that has been fighting to stay out of the cellar most of the season.
Fantasy Baseball Round-Up
Draft time is drawing closer. I’ve got a draft for my head-to-head league coming up March 17, with my rotisserie league draft set for its traditional final Saturday before Opening Day. No doubt many of you have drafts coming up even sooner, so let’s get down to business.
One of the toughest and least fun parts of any draft is choosing relief pitchers. That’s because – outside of the top few – there’s often not a lot of consistency among closers from year to year (a lot of Joe Borowskis, in other words). When I talk about relief pitchers, I’m primarily talking about closers, though I know a lot of leagues now count “holds” as a stat. Also, in H2H leagues, it might make sense to have an oft-used set-up man or two in addition to closers. With that in mind, here’s my top 10:
1. Jonathan Papelbon. Busy, busy boy. Addition of Takashi Saito beefs up an already good core of set-up men to get him more opportunities.
2. Mariano Rivera. Had a few down games last year, but ended stronger than ever with a 1.40 ERA in 2008 and only six walks. Much better team this year.
3. Joe Nathan.1.33 ERA last year was best ever. Amazingly consistent from start to finish. Only question is supporting cast.
4. Brad Lidge. Really has found his way back. Walks are his weakness, but tends to be an escape artist. No blown saves in 2008.
5. Francisco Rodriguez. Mets have rebuilt pen around him, and his stuff may shock NL players. Yet, he can only come down from 2008’s heights.
6. Jonathan Broxton.(A star in the making. Has to bring a few things under control, but Saito’s gone and the job is his for sure.
7. Carlos Marmol. If he’s anywhere near as good a closer as set-up man . . . but of course, that’s the big question. Only 40 hits in 87.1 IP last year.
8. Joakim Soria. Banished in Kansas City, but still got 42 saves out of a 75-win team. Young, reliable, and .169 opponent batting average last year.
9. Kerry Wood. Yes, I am insane. But, even if he misses time with Woody-like injuries, he really settled in as a closer late in 2008 and will get many chances with Cleveland.
10. Joba Chamberlain. Going for the holds here, as well as the Ks. possibly could lead relievers in appearances and may qualify as a starter, too.
Around the fantasosphere:
* The Yahoo! fantasy panel likes Bobby Jenks more than I do. Jenks was something of a disappointment last year with 30 saves and 38 Ks and an opponent batting average of .230, which doesn’t sound bad until you compare it to the .198 he posted in 2007.
* CBS Sports.com has current average draft position by position, and for relief pitchers, Rodriguez is the surprising lead pick, going on average at No. 38, with Papelbon at 44. True, K-Rod saved 62 games last year, and that’s a lot of points, but most of his other categories – hits allowed, walks, Ks – were the worst of his career. Those shortcomings didn’t mean much last year, but the Mets may need to be careful about over-using him.
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears every Wednesday, except when it appears on Thursday. Tips, comments, and suggestions are welcome.
Posted on February 25, 2009