By Dan O’Shea
Fantasy sports are rife with mysteries. No matter how far ahead of the game you think you are, no matter how much you think you know who should play and how many scoring chances they should get, you still are not managing the team on the field or the court. In fact, when you see what some of the field and court managers do, who they choose to play and how many chances they get to touch the ball, you might think you actually know more than they do, or are better prepared.
I won’t say you’re right or wrong about that. Though we fantasy types lack the professional training, sometimes it seems like the professionals are stuck in mode of doing things by the playbook, when a better decision appears to be at arm’s length, if only they reach out for it.
One of this year’s fantasy football mysteries concerns the disappearance on one-time RB stud Shaun Alexander. He went downhill fast and was sent to the junk heap by Seattle – fair enough. But, the way other teams passed on Alexander, even with their own questionable backfield plans, makes little sense.
Washington finally picked him up, but he’s barely touched the ball. That may change this week with Clinton Portis possibly out, or at least limited. Ladell Betts still is ahead of Alexander on the depth chart but also hurting, and Rock Cartwright is in play, too. But I’m betting Alexander delivers a break-out week – if given the chance.
One of this year’s fantasy basketball mysteries goes all the way back to last year: The Greg Oden effect. Oden was injured in the first game this year before he even made a shot. Anyone who drafted him had to decide whether or not to keep him on the bench for several weeks or take the injury as a sign wasn’t meant to be.
You may – or may not – recall that Oden was a sixth-round pick on one of my fantasy teams. I decided the day after he was injured to drop him for a PG/SG to better address two areas where I was definitely lacking. I picked up Nate Robinson, and can’t say I regret it, as he’s been the Knicks’ most consistent offensive and steals threat. But now Oden is coming back a couple weeks earlier than planned. If you have room, make a spot for him. He will be treated strictly with kid gloves for a few weeks, and I think with Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge scoring big for Portland, he may not figure as a great scorer, but should get rebounds and blocks galore even in limited playing time.
And, now, here’s what the fantasy football and basketball experts are saying this week:
Football
* Bring the Noise ranks Kansas City QB Tyler Thigpen as his strongest pick-up of the week, followed closely by Denver RB Peyton Hillis. Larry Johnson is finally supposed to be back in the starting RB role for KC, so you have to wonder what that will do to Thigpen’s numbers, but he has been leveraging a new spread offense while Johnson has been out.
Thigpen has been pushing the top 10 QB rankings in many leagues, but he may slow down a little the rest of the way if Johnson actually does his job.
Hillis could be interesting because he’s the only back Denver has left that has played this year. That doesn’t count Tatum Bell, who just signed, however, and knows Denver’s system from playing there previously.
Denver is one of the teams that missed out by not picking up Alexander. Hillis will be most interesting in short yardage situations, meaning he could get TDs, but Denver QB Jay Cutler had an all-star Week 10 performance, I wouldn’t be surpised if Denver just keeps throwing.
* NFL Skinny speculates that Tony Romo will be back, and none too soon, even if he is not 100 percent. Matt Hasselbeck and Kyle Orton could both be back, too. What’s with all the healthy first-string QBs? Barring any last-minute setbacks, Orton should be the one to cut loose with the most pass attempts, while the other two may favor their injuries with short, low-risk throws that don’t leave them too exposed to pass rush.
* Brendan Roberts at ESPN.com has a comprehensive list of strategies for after the bye weeks are over, which is now, by the way. His advice in short: Drop everyone you don’t need and pick up only the back-ups to your starters if they are available.
Well, I might be stretching my interpretation a little.
But guys like Jerious Norwood and Darren Sproles, normally back-ups to stud RBs, should see enough of an increase in opportunities that you can play both the starters – Michael Turner and LaDanian Tomlinson – and their back-ups.
* ESPN’s experts also rate Kurt Warner the top fantasy QB, amazing in that he probably was not drafted in some leagues even after he was named the starter over Matt Leinart. But he’s got great targets and is playing like the two-time MVP he once was.
Basketball
* NBA Skinny notes that injuries are already playing a major role in the young NBA season, with Deron Williams likely out longer than expected, and now no fewer than four guards – Michael Redd, Josh Smith, Devin Harris and Tony Parker -all fighting ankle sprains that are costing them multiple games.
* Hoops Lab says Jose Calderon is the new Steve Nash and Nate Robinson is the new Leandro Barbosa. It’s amazing that Calderon has actually been able to live up to – and arguably surpass – the considerable hype he was burdened with going into many drafts. Robinson, meanwhile, fills the Barbosa speedster role in Mike D’Antoni’s new line-up in New York.
Meanwhile, the guys Mike D. left behind are suffering. So far, Nash’s points and assists are well off expectations, even for a star player seen to be in gradual decline. Barbosa’s points are also down, and he’s not running his way into as many steals either.
By next week, most NBA teams will have played 10 games, and we’ll take a look at how the top 10 list of fantasy studs shakes out.
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears every Wednesday, except for the occasional Thursday. Tips, comments, and suggestions are welcome.
Posted on November 13, 2008