Previously:
* Pytel’s Picks: Round One
* Pytel’s Picks: Round Two
Round 3: The Conference Finals
First, here’s a brief recap of Round 2 where a lot of my predictions bit the dust:
The Western Conference was at one time referred to as the Campbell Conference, so I guess it’s fitting that neither San Jose’s Brian Campbell nor the Campbell Conference are still alive in the playoffs. The Dallas Stars shocked many observers by taking the first three games of their quarterfinal series against the San Jose Sharks, including winning the first two games in San Jose. They seemed to cruise through the series, although two games later they found their series lead had narrowed to 3-2, and it did take the Stars four overtimes to finish off the Sharks in Game 6, though the Stars dictated a lot of the play.
Detroit manhandled Colorado, and got some impressive offensive contributions from a guy nicknamed “the Mule,” Johan Franzen. Franzen netted nine goals in a four-game sweep. Franzen is also the second leading scorer in the playoffs, and that’s a problem for opposing teams because he’s not even considered one of the top three players on the team. Detroit was the No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs and they’ve looked every bit as tough as that ranking. Somewhere in the back the skeptics are wondering how long Detroit can keep, myself included, but it would be hard to argue with the results thus far.
In the East, it’ll be an all-Pennsylvania tilt as both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers advanced. Philadelphia, similar to Dallas, outworked their opponent, the heavily favored Montreal Canadiens. R.J. Umberger scored early and often against Montreal and finished the five-game series with eight goals. Philadelphia will again be David vs. Goliath when they take on the favored Pittsburgh Penguins.
Pittsburgh seemed to click on all cylinders in outlasting the New York Rangers in five games. The Penguins have looked rather solid in between the pipes, where Marc Andre Fleury has silenced a lot of his critics with stellar saves and solid netminding. As deadly as the Pittsburgh offensive weapons are with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Marian Hossa, it’s the goaltending and commitment to defense that has made the Penguins especially deadly so far.
Predictions:
#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. # 5 Dallas Stars
Dallas is led by captain Brendan Morrow, who played like a beast against the Sharks. Look for more of the same against Detroit if the Stars want to keep their Cinderella playoff story going. Since Detroit is getting contributions from multiple players, Dallas is going to need to be aggressive and look to hit everything and anything in an attempt to take away Detroit’s finesse. Dallas goaltender Marty Turco has never won at Detroit’s Joe Louis Arena, so now is as good a time as any for Turco to put that streak to sleep. The hardest task for Dallas may be matching Detroit’s depth. The Stars will need to get more contributions out of Brad Richards and Mike Modano if they hope to pull off the upset. Detroit’s goaltender Chris Osgood has been effective largely because Detroit is defensively adept at keeping the opposition on the perimeter. Look for Morrow to be a pest in front of the net and create a little havoc for Detroit’s defensemen
Pick: Dallas ekes it out in 7
#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers
The battle for Pennsylvania should be entertaining. Pittsburgh has the explosive offensive players that get all the press but Philadelphia has quietly gone about shutting down explosive offensive weapons in the first two rounds defeating Washington and Montreal. This series could come down to special teams and how well each team executes on the power play. Both teams have had good power plays in the post-season, but Pittsburgh’s been more effective on the penalty kill, giving up only four goals in 38 attempts (PK rate: 89.5%). If both teams remain disciplined, than it could be a toss-up. In the regular season, the Flyers took five of eight, including one win in Pittsburgh. If Philly can steal one of the first two games, then an upset could be in the making. It’s Pittsburgh’s series to lose and I have to give them the slight edge because of their abundance of offensive talent.
Pick: Pittsburgh in 7
Posted on May 8, 2008